Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BE 0xbe38…6f8e other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$230 (+19%) realized +$214 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$173
sports 22% +$60
weather 9% +$73
world 6% −$57
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +26.3% +14.2% 64% 64% +13.0%
≤30d 25 +26.3% +14.2% 64% 64% +13.0%
≤90d 25 +26.3% +14.2% 64% 64% +13.0%
all 25 +26.3% +14.2% 64% 64% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.2% 64% +13.0%
10% ← realistic here +3.3% 56% +2.2%
15% -6.7% 44% -7.7%
20% -15.8% 32% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized+$214
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)25 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 52¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+54%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 −$7 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$14 -70%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$87 +79%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $151 +$43 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$45 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $19 +$31 +165%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$16 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +428%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$9 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$67 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $60 +$18 +29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 23¢ $20 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $194 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $5 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 92¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes $3 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 35¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $13 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $27 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $55 24h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $84 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $76 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.43 · official $300.60 · 66 history records