Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe30…8348 crypto 359 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1722 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7,564 (+13%) realized +$7,541 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%189W / 640L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day1721.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1722 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-58.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 829 -54.2% -58.5% 23% 19% -14.0%
≤30d 829 -54.2% -58.5% 23% 19% -14.0%
≤90d 829 -54.2% -58.5% 23% 19% -14.0%
all 829 -54.2% -58.5% 23% 19% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1721.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.5% 19% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -62.5% 16% -22.3%
15% -66.1% 12% -29.8%
20% -69.4% 10% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$28 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$7,541
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses189 / 640
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)829 / 359
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$158
Trades / day1721.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 829 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 23¢ 46¢ $24 $47 +$23 (+98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $24 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $31 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $77 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $34 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $205 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $63 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $62 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $57 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.51 · official $20.28 · 3500 history records