trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +28.5% | +16.3% | 100% | 100% | +12.4% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 80% | 45% | -6.8% |
| all | 24 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 83% | 38% | -7.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.5% | 38% | -7.0% |
| 10% | -17.2% | 17% | -15.9% |
| 15% | -25.2% | 8% | -24.0% |
| 20% | -32.6% | 0% | -31.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 13¢ | $13 | $16 | +$3 (+19%) |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 50¢ | $6 | $6 | −$1 (-10%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $4 | $3 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 64¢ | 20¢ | $4 | $1 | −$3 (-68%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 87¢ | 86¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | No | 70¢ | 74¢ | $0 | $1 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 10 | $3 | +$1 | +43% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | Jun 03 | $9 | +$2 | +25% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | Jun 03 | $10 | +$2 | +18% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? | May 18 | $4 | +$1 | +19% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | May 18 | $10 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 11 | $7 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 05 | $7 | +$3 | +35% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 15 | $5 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 15 | $28 | −$3 | -11% |
| Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Apr 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 30 above $305? | Apr 06 | $4 | +$1 | +42% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | Apr 02 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? | Apr 02 | $22 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | Apr 02 | $8 | +$1 | +10% |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Apr 02 | $21 | +$4 | +20% |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Mar 30 | $7 | +$1 | +11% |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Mar 30 | $17 | +$2 | +13% |
| Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 21 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 21 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 7? | Mar 09 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? | Mar 09 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? | Mar 09 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 7? | Mar 09 | $7 | $0 | +4% |