Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe2b…20e4 sports 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,527 (-24%) realized −$9,527 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%72W / 74L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$666est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days−$992
30 days−$1,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$8,397
crypto 8% −$582
other 5% −$1,134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +79.6% +62.5% 100% 100% +62.5%
≤30d 76 -6.3% -15.2% 50% 49% -22.0%
≤90d 146 -8.1% -16.8% 49% 48% -34.9%
all 146 -8.1% -16.8% 49% 48% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 48% -34.9%
10% -24.8% 42% -41.2%
15% -32.0% 31% -46.8%
20% -38.7% 26% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$239 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,527
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses72 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$666
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage73d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $67 +$53 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $72 −$68 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $618 −$600 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $615 −$615 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $403 +$220 +55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $95 −$93 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $150 +$86 +58%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $228 −$62 -27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $159 +$48 +30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $64 +$11 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$45 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $48 +$52 +110%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $223 +$127 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $135 +$64 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $179 −$36 -20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $65 −$64 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $58 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $51 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$3 -5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $18 +$13 +72%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $89 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $63 +$16 +25%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $120 −$118 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $148 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $55 −$35 -64%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $100 +$57 +57%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $24 +$20 +82%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $94 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $307 −$307 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $157 −$154 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $269 +$186 +69%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $97 −$95 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $121 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 55¢ $67 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $71 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $53 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $618 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $180 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $167 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $98 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $403 9d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 15¢ $56 14d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 29¢ $39 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $33 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $8 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $6 14d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $11 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 866 history records