Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BE 0xbe2a…1c1d crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.9% -7.8% 59% 55% -7.9%
≤30d 22 +1.9% -7.8% 59% 55% -7.9%
≤90d 22 +1.9% -7.8% 59% 55% -7.9%
all 22 +1.9% -7.8% 59% 55% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 55% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 50% -16.7%
15% -24.6% 36% -24.7%
20% -32.0% 27% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $46 +$16 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.57 · official $49.57 (match) · 59 history records