Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe2a…d248 crypto 1433 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$205 (-1%) realized −$204 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate78%1116W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$195
14 days+$219
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 280 -1.6% -11.0% 80% 65% -7.1%
≤30d 956 -1.9% -11.2% 80% 68% -8.1%
≤90d 1432 -2.4% -11.7% 78% 69% -9.5%
all 1432 -2.4% -11.7% 78% 69% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 69% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 21% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1116 / 316
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1432 / 1433
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 81¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $122 +$26 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $106 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $208 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$4 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.31 · official $8.92 (match) · 3500 history records