Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe29…3884 crypto 537 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$580 (+19%) realized +$580 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%272W / 638L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 402 -84.0% -85.5% 3% 3% -95.6%
≤30d 589 -29.4% -36.1% 34% 34% -80.8%
≤90d 834 -38.8% -44.6% 29% 29% -66.4%
all 910 -35.9% -42.0% 30% 29% -49.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.0% 29% -49.5%
10% ← realistic here -47.6% 27% -54.3%
15% -52.6% 26% -58.7%
20% -57.3% 25% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses272 / 638
Open positions0
Markets (closed)910 / 537
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 910 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$13 +815%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records