Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe29…eb76 sports 414 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,408 (-13%) realized −$1,408 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate29%119W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day72.9pace
Fees−$256est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$308
7 days−$348
14 days−$610
30 days−$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$553
other 10% −$323
crypto 3% +$7
world 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -8.6% -17.3% 11% 7% -31.4%
≤30d 252 -2.7% -12.0% 35% 16% -17.3%
≤90d 413 -4.6% -13.7% 29% 12% -16.9%
all 413 -4.6% -13.7% 29% 12% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 12% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 7% -24.8%
15% -29.5% 5% -32.1%
20% -36.4% 3% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,408
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses119 / 294
Est. fees paid−$256
Open positions1
Markets (closed)413 / 414
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day72.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 44¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $384 −$298 -78%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$6 +8%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $30 −$2 -7%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
ITF San Gregorio: Luna Maria Cinalli vs Carmen Andreea Herea Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $60 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $12 −$2 -16%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 15 $20 −$5 -25%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $28 −$1 -4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $50 −$3 -6%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $16 −$1 -5%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $70 −$6 -9%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $20 −$1 -7%
ITF Los Angeles: Maria Aytoyan vs Monika Ekstrand Jun 12 $20 −$3 -17%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $9 −$1 -11%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julie Struplova vs Martha Matoula Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $10 −$1 -9%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
ITF Zagreb: Dalila Jakupovic vs Amarissa Kiara Toth Jun 11 $20 −$4 -21%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Darya Velikova vs Iva Ivanovic Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $53 −$2 -4%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 −$2 -11%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
ITF Nice: Nika Hurkacz vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 10 $20 −$1 -4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $12 −$2 -14%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $5 −$1 -18%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $41 −$1 -4%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
ITF Nice: Jenny Lim vs Margaux Rouvroy Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
ITF Zagreb: Lea Boskovic vs Erika Andreeva Jun 10 $18 −$2 -11%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records