trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 0% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 0% | 0% | -10.6% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -10.3% | -18.8% | 30% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 27 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 52% | 7% | -8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.5% | 7% | -8.5% |
| 10% | -20.0% | 4% | -17.3% |
| 15% | -27.7% | 0% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -34.8% | 0% | -32.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 52¢ | 52¢ | $35 | $36 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $8 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 22 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 26 | $7 | $0 | -6% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $3 | $0 | +7% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $34 | +$2 | +5% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 21 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will de Goes Rodrygo win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Mar 31 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jul 15 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 26 | $12 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 04 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | Jun 04 | $11 | +$2 | +16% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Jun 03 | $9 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Solana reach $190 in April? | Apr 16 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser | Apr 15 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 15 | $2 | $0 | +23% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 14 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 13 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | Apr 12 | $9 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? | Apr 10 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? | Mar 18 | $11 | $0 | +2% |