Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BE 0xbe28…b20c politics 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1
politics 21% +$1
other 17% $0
crypto 8% +$2
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 10 -10.3% -18.8% 30% 0% -9.0%
all 27 -2.2% -11.5% 52% 7% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 7% -8.5%
10% -20.0% 4% -17.3%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage465d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 52¢ 52¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $7 $0 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $34 +$2 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $34 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will de Goes Rodrygo win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? Jun 04 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $2 $0 +23%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 14h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 14h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 15h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 17h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $8 17h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $6 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $7 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $36 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 68¢ $34 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $23 32d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $11 32d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $34 32d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $34 34d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $34 34d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes $0 344d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $12 363d
Will de Goes Rodrygo win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $0 384d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $12 385d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $13 385d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.70 · official $35.70 (match) · 66 history records