Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe21…2f9c sports 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,882 (-9%) realized −$4,882 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate71%290W / 117L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$76
14 days+$140
30 days+$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$4,063
other 26% −$542
weather 11% +$2
crypto 3% −$303
culture 0% $0
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.0% -15.9% 78% 22% -5.4%
≤30d 38 +8.7% -1.6% 87% 34% -0.8%
≤90d 198 -34.5% -40.8% 51% 22% -36.3%
all 407 -5.6% -14.6% 71% 42% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 42% -17.9%
10% -22.7% 26% -25.8%
15% -30.2% 16% -32.9%
20% -37.0% 10% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$80 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$4,882
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses290 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)407 / 408
History coverage207d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 99¢ $217 $217 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $307 +$7 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $469 +$30 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 −$13 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $101 +$13 +13%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $570 +$30 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $597 +$3 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $43 +$18 +42%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 +$11 +49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $489 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $153 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $293 +$7 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $38 +$2 +4%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $16 +$4 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $294 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $19 +$7 +34%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago end in a draw? Jun 09 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +59%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $498 +$2 +0%
Saski Baskonia vs. Joventut: O/U 174.5 Jun 03 $10 +$5 +45%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? May 31 $13 −$5 -37%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $5 +$5 +85%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $303 +$375 +124%
Virtus Bologna vs. Reyer Venezia May 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $189 −$52 -27%
Paris Basketball vs. Strasbourg May 26 $55 +$13 +23%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Trabzonspor May 26 $7 +$3 +37%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi May 26 $14 +$2 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $23 +$2 +8%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Pallacanestro Trieste May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane May 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $89 +$7 +8%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $778 +$18 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 99¢ $143 40m
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $285 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $15 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $15 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $154 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $42 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $85 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $112 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? SELL No 83¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? SELL No 76¢ $57 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? SELL Yes 36¢ $36 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $9 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 92¢ $28 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 93¢ $19 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $541 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $29 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.14 · official $217.14 (match) · 2880 history records