Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe20…cb9d crypto 532 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%348W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$36
sports 4% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +6.6% -3.5% 87% 87% -13.9%
≤30d 451 +1.3% -8.3% 65% 63% -11.4%
≤90d 532 -0.3% -9.8% 65% 64% -12.8%
all 532 -0.3% -9.8% 65% 64% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 64% -12.8%
10% -18.4% 43% -21.2%
15% -26.3% 28% -28.8%
20% -33.5% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses348 / 184
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)532 / 532
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 532 Trades
no open positions (158 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 945 history records