Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe20…1c4e crypto 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$83 (+3%) realized +$87 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate52%44W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days+$148
14 days+$148
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$177
crypto 20% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.0% -2.3% 73% 53% -3.1%
≤30d 85 -20.2% -27.8% 52% 32% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -20.2% -27.8% 52% 32% -9.6%
all 85 -20.2% -27.8% 52% 32% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 32% -9.6%
10% -34.7% 18% -18.2%
15% -41.0% 9% -26.1%
20% -46.8% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses44 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage20d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $101 +$33 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $202 −$79 -39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$23 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$71 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $286 +$15 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $233 +$53 +23%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $84 +$48 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $223 +$57 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $141 −$113 -81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $130 +$11 +8%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $119 +$10 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $79 +$41 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$33 -64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 05 $18 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 05 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 05 $31 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 15m
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 98¢ $134 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 27¢ $46 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $77 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $223 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $173 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $300 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $286 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $164 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 85¢ $133 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 53¢ $84 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 87¢ $84 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $86 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $86 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $61 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $49 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 56¢ $49 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $27 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $141 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.43 · official $96.43 (match) · 217 history records