Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbe1f…7e76 crypto 1611 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$41 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1585W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$10
14 days+$17
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$13
other 3% +$28
sports 2% +$3
tech 1% +$12
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 335 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 717 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 1609 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 1% -9.2%
all 1609 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 1% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1585 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1609 / 1611
History coverage51d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 21m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 23m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.77 · official $52.77 (match) · 3240 history records