Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BE 0xbe1d…a7da sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,103 (-8%) realized −$2,231 · open +$128
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%51W / 58L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$151
14 days−$151
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$254
crypto 17% −$930
finance 15% −$648
sports 11% −$85
tech 9% −$648
other 8% −$247
economics 0% +$2
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 50% -16.4%
≤30d 33 -18.1% -25.9% 48% 42% -11.5%
≤90d 70 -23.7% -30.9% 44% 37% -22.8%
all 109 -16.9% -24.8% 47% 42% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 42% -19.6%
10% -32.0% 35% -27.3%
15% -38.6% 20% -34.3%
20% -44.6% 16% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$103 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$2,028
Realized−$2,231
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses51 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions14
Markets (closed)109 / 123
History coverage577d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 43¢ 84¢ $300 $591 +$291 (+97%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 72¢ 55¢ $400 $304 −$96 (-24%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 75¢ 76¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 38¢ 22¢ $150 $85 −$65 (-43%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 50¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$232 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$31 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $151 +$32 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$40 +40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $102 +$68 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $89 +$37 +41%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 29 $391 −$330 -84%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? May 29 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? May 29 $202 −$6 -3%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 29 $201 +$5 +2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? May 29 $203 −$106 -52%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? May 29 $102 +$39 +38%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? May 29 $207 +$11 +5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? May 29 $103 −$46 -45%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 25 $202 +$26 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $1,100 +$605 +55%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 24 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $420-$430 on the final day of trading o May 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $430-$440 on the final day of trading o May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 17 $50 −$36 -71%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $50 −$23 -47%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 08 $50 −$9 -18%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 04 $850 −$652 -77%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $900 −$665 -74%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 01 $150 +$79 +53%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Mar 31 $1,150 +$323 +28%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Mar 31 $600 −$8 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 31 $700 −$26 -4%
US recession by end of 2026? Mar 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of March? Mar 30 $50 −$41 -81%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March? Mar 30 $100 +$22 +22%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $815 −$50 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $500 −$78 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 36h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 36h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 36h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $151 37h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 37h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $45 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 37h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 37h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 38h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $102 38h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 38h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 3d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $170 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,027.51 · official $2,013.62 (match) · 404 history records