Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BE 0xbe1c…192f sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized −$29 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 35% +$43
crypto 26% +$4
sports 22% −$63
other 12% +$30
politics 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.2% +4.2% 67% 33% +10.5%
≤30d 3 +15.2% +4.2% 67% 33% +10.5%
≤90d 5 -30.9% -37.5% 40% 20% -18.1%
all 6 -34.1% -40.4% 33% 17% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 17% -19.8%
10% -46.1% 17% -27.5%
15% -51.3% 17% -34.5%
20% -56.1% 17% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage144d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $78 $83 +$5 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+60%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Jun 14 $38 −$9 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$4 +8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 13 $64 +$39 +61%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 22 $10 −$5 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.80 · official $218.81 (match) · 128 history records