Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BE 0xbe1b…5db7 sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$43 (-18%) realized −$25 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip

Net edge-58%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate23%3W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day8.1pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-54.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-49.7%	-54.5%	23%	23%	-39.6%
≤30d	13	-49.7%	-54.5%	23%	23%	-39.6%
≤90d	13	-49.7%	-54.5%	23%	23%	-39.6%
all	13	-49.7%	-54.5%	23%	23%	-39.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.5%	23%	-39.6%
10%	-58.8%	23%	-45.3%
15%	-62.8%	23%	-50.6%
20%	-66.5%	15%	-55.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -50% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -20% → late -75% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$7

Realized−$25

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)23%

Wins / losses3 / 10

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage3d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day8.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	EDward Gaming	32¢	20¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-36%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Paper Rex	65¢	80¢	$0	$0	+$0 (+22%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner	EDward Gaming	32¢	0¢	$18	$0	−$18 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$10	+$7	+73%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$40	−$40	-99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	Jun 18	$11	−$1	-9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	+$24	+233%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$40	+$19	+48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY EDward Gaming	32¢	$10	9m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	SELL Paper Rex	68¢	$10	10m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Paper Rex	65¢	$10	36m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner	BUY EDward Gaming	11¢	$3	37m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner	BUY EDward Gaming	53¢	$15	46m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	SELL EDward Gaming	42¢	$28	1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY EDward Gaming	26¢	$18	9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	74¢	$30	22h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	BUY T1 Academy	12¢	$1	29h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	SELL Dplus KIA Challengers	83¢	$21	29h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	40¢	$10	34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$10	34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$10	34h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	45h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	28¢	$34	45h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	45h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo	BUY Nongshim Esports Academy	21¢	$10	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$60	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$40	2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	BUY FUT Esports	29¢	$10	2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl	BUY XLG Gaming	30¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.72 · official $10.47 · 26 history records