Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BE 0xbe1a…4b61 other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%13W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$13
politics 11% −$7
other 8% −$29
sports 1% +$8
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 17% 0% -18.7%
≤30d 21 -4.2% -13.3% 14% 5% -11.1%
≤90d 53 -2.8% -12.0% 19% 13% -10.7%
all 68 -2.0% -11.4% 19% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 12% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 12% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 9% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses13 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage604d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 +$11 +114%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 18 $69 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $8 +$10 +124%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $125 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $131 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $24 $0 -2%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$8 +70%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $8 +$4 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $10 +$3 +29%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $13 +$4 +29%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $7 +$3 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 26h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 28h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $12 46h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $13 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $23 7d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 10d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $6 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $9 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.89 · official $58.89 (match) · 286 history records