Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$93

7 days−$93

14 days−$93

30 days−$93

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	54¢	52¢	$11	$11	−$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	44¢	0¢	$23	$0	−$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	66¢	0¢	$54	$0	−$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	3¢	0¢	$33	$0	−$33 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 12	$36	−$33	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 12	$24	+$7	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 12	$24	−$23	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 12	$48	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 12	$57	−$54	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 12	$24	+$9	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

crypto 95% −$93

other 5% $0

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$36	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$24	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$24	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$49	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$48	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$57	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$33	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$24	2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$12	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-44.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-38.6%	-44.4%	50%	33%	-50.2%
≤30d	6	-38.6%	-44.4%	50%	33%	-50.2%
≤90d	6	-38.6%	-44.4%	50%	33%	-50.2%
all	6	-38.6%	-44.4%	50%	33%	-50.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.4%	33%	-50.2%
10%	-49.7%	33%	-54.9%
15%	-54.6%	17%	-59.3%
20%	-59.1%	0%	-63.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.