Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe14…84f8 politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% $0
other 20% −$1
world 15% −$4
crypto 11% +$1
tech 6% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 6 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 0% -11.9%
all 45 -0.8% -10.2% 40% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage322d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $26 −$2 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $6 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $1 $0 -17%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $47 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $15 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $3800 on August 11? Aug 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 10 $1 $0 +39%
Solana above $175 on August 6? Aug 10 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 07 $7 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 06 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $33 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $27 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $2 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $22 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $2 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $24 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $26 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $17 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 13d
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $15 287d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 288d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 295d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 300d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 91¢ $15 303d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 304d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 304d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 91¢ $15 304d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $13 304d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 304d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 305d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 305d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 305d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $35 305d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records