Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe12…f215 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$2
world 35% −$3
sports 10% +$10
politics 7% +$22
crypto 6% +$1
weather 4% −$6
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 43% 14% -11.3%
≤30d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 15% -10.6%
≤90d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 15% -10.6%
all 30 +6.7% -3.4% 57% 20% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 20% -6.3%
10% -12.7% 10% -15.2%
15% -21.1% 7% -23.4%
20% -28.8% 7% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage480d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $53 −$2 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 −$2 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $8 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $4 $0 +11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $32 −$2 -6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump orders U.S. prisoners to El Salvador before April? Mar 28 $1 $0 -8%
$jellyjelly FDV over $50m on Friday? Mar 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $3 +$3 +108%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 21 $39 $0 -1%
Kent State vs. Western Michigan Mar 06 $27 +$10 +35%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 38-42m viewers? Mar 04 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5? Mar 04 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Mitch McConnell applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump say Zelensky 3+ times during his presser with Starme Mar 04 $15 +$21 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $28 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $32 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $17 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records