Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BE 0xbe0f…be49 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-6%) realized −$76 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$82
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$68
sports 25% −$100
crypto 3% +$2
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.8% -12.0% 67% 67% -59.1%
≤30d 4 +8.8% -1.5% 75% 75% -48.6%
≤90d 4 +8.8% -1.5% 75% 75% -48.6%
all 4 +8.8% -1.5% 75% 75% -48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 75% -48.6%
10% -11.0% 50% -53.5%
15% -19.6% 50% -58.0%
20% -27.5% 25% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$100 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)4 / 21
History coverage15d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $150 $206 +$56 (+37%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 48¢ $35 $50 +$15 (+41%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 55¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $55 $38 −$17 (-31%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 48¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+48%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 23¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-84%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$6 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$11 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $35 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 5d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 10d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 12d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $10 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 12d
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 15d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 15d
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 15d
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 15d
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 15d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 15d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 15d
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.62 · official $458.62 (match) · 40 history records