Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbe0d…49d2 crypto 372 markets active 5d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-1%) realized −$130 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate93%346W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$116
14 days−$174
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$78
weather 18% +$38
other 12% −$102
politics 1% −$34
world 0% +$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -6.4% -15.3% 89% 8% -17.5%
≤30d 371 -0.3% -9.8% 93% 9% -11.0%
≤90d 371 -0.3% -9.8% 93% 9% -11.0%
all 371 -0.3% -9.8% 93% 9% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 9% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -19.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$34 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses346 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)371 / 372
History coverage8d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $37 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +2%
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 12, 3AM ET? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 11, 9PM ET? Jun 12 $36 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 11 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $33 +$1 +3%
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 11, 12AM ET? Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$1 +6%
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$41 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $17 +$2 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$1 +4%
Ethereum above 1,610 on June 10, 10AM ET? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$17 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $37 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $15 4d
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 12, 3AM ET? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 4d
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 11, 9PM ET? BUY No 90¢ $36 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 94¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $31 5d
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 11, 12AM ET? BUY No 97¢ $33 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 92¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.25 · official $43.25 (match) · 718 history records