Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe0c…ebae weather 502 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (198 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,482 (-1%) realized −$1,382 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%492W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day198.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$337
7 days−$247
14 days−$340
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (198 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 +11.5% +0.9% 99% 1% -10.1%
≤30d 496 +8.8% -1.6% 99% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 496 +8.8% -1.6% 99% 1% -9.5%
all 496 +8.8% -1.6% 99% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover198.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 1% -18.2%
15% -19.6% 1% -26.1%
20% -27.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$161 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,337
Realized−$1,382
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses492 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)496 / 502
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$209
Trades / day198.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $421 $422 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $414 $413 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $348 $349 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $245 $244 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $161 $161 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? No 99¢ 58¢ $239 $139 −$100 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $127 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on April 9? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 30 Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on May 23 Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 25? Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 28? Jun 17 $0 $0 +204%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 28? Jun 17 $0 +$6 +3656%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $454 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $442 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $207 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $129 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $318 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $418 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $325 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $423 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $392 −$392 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $503 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $281 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $511 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $619 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $513 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $166 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $571 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $543 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $481 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $508 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 15 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $436 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $369 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $82 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $86 7m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $55 10m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $11 14m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $11 14m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $11 15m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $7 15m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $165 19m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $82 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 41m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 42m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $73 43m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $94 47m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $456 47m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 53m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 53m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $13 56m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $70 56m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $16 59m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 59m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $67 59m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $444 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,337.42 · official $2,328.62 (match) · 3500 history records