Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BE 0xbe0b…06ac other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$116 (+3%) realized +$73 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$503per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3,953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$51
world 3% −$8
crypto 2% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$32 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3,953
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$503
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 73¢ 68¢ $2,000 $1,875 −$125 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1,100 $1,302 +$202 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $500 $475 −$25 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,028 28h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $1,000 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $1,000 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,953.15 · official $3,936.97 (match) · 15 history records