Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe0b…17a4 weather 500 markets active 5d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-5%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%205W / 295L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$42
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$34
crypto 17% −$17
other 6% −$5
sports 4% −$6
politics 1% −$3
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.2% -23.3% 45% 45% -23.1%
≤30d 188 -34.3% -40.6% 27% 25% -36.8%
≤90d 451 -8.0% -16.8% 39% 38% -18.6%
all 500 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 39% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 39% -17.5%
10% -23.6% 36% -25.4%
15% -31.0% 33% -32.6%
20% -37.8% 28% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses205 / 295
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)500 / 500
History coverage109d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 500 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +224%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1139 history records