Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe0a…ebde crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-10%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -18.1% -25.9% 55% 48% -27.8%
≤30d 31 -18.1% -25.9% 55% 48% -27.8%
≤90d 31 -18.1% -25.9% 55% 48% -27.8%
all 31 -18.1% -25.9% 55% 48% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 48% -27.8%
10% -33.0% 42% -34.7%
15% -39.4% 26% -41.0%
20% -45.4% 16% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records