Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbe0a…eed1 weather 1681 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 166d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$180 (+0%) realized +$173 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%1619W / 43L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10,056now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 166d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,771
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -11.3% -19.8% 89% 0% -23.7%
≤30d 360 -4.0% -13.1% 96% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 1230 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 0% -10.8%
all 1662 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 1% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -10.7%
10% -18.7% 1% -19.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$331 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$10,056
Realized+$173
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1619 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions34
Markets (closed)1662 / 1681
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$361
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 1662 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,364 $1,370 +$6 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,183 $1,186 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $898 $899 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $496 $497 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $494 $493 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $492 $491 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $491 $491 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $491 $489 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $395 $395 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $363 $363 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $324 $324 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $321 $321 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $312 $312 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $229 $229 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $227 $227 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $226 $226 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $185 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $174 $174 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $164 $164 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Se Jun 15 $397 −$397 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on Se Jun 15 $260 −$260 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on No Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on Oc Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Se Jun 15 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on July 16? Jun 15 $582 −$582 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on Se Jun 15 $590 −$590 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Oc Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on Au Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on No Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on Oc Jun 15 $285 −$285 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November Jun 15 $1,066 −$1,066 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or below on Sept Jun 15 $394 −$394 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 31-32°F on De Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jul Jun 15 $555 −$555 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 15 $500 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $447 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 15 $491 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 1 Jun 15 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $246 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $387 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $405 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 14? Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 14? Jun 15 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 15 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on June 14? Jun 15 $492 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 6°C on June 14? Jun 15 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 67°F or below on June 13? Jun 14 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 13? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 13? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on June 1 Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 13? Jun 14 $479 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $476 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 13? Jun 14 $282 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 13? Jun 14 $269 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 14 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $492 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on June 1 Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $674 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $283 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on June 13? Jun 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $292 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $258 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $491 31m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $27 32m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $164 32m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $395 33m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $494 33m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $321 39m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $79 42m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $229 42m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $500 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $111 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $37 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $48 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $499 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $491 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $363 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $492 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $111 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $27 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $79 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $79 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $79 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $185 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $496 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $466 25h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $226 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,056.47 · official $10,056.96 (match) · 3500 history records