Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe07…78ae other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$41
sports 18% −$9
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$5
economics 6% −$4
crypto 6% −$4
world 5% −$4
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage130d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $360 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $437 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $258 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $708 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $353 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $731 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $294 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $645 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $311 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $364 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $439 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $366 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $307 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $220 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 9h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 11h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 11h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 12h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 15h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 16h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 18h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 21h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $35 24h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $35 27h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 33h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 35h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 43h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 45h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 46h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 47h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 3d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.37 · official $54.37 (match) · 1320 history records