Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbe04…1481 sports 227 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,843 (+9%) realized +$1,851 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%92W / 134L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$508
7 days+$709
14 days+$877
30 days+$1,481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$1,801
other 16% −$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.4% -9.8% 44% 44% +13.0%
≤30d 58 +18.9% +7.6% 45% 45% +11.4%
≤90d 163 +7.4% -2.8% 42% 41% +3.2%
all 226 +0.2% -9.4% 41% 40% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 40% -2.6%
10% -18.0% 40% -11.9%
15% -26.0% 40% -20.4%
20% -33.2% 37% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$68 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1,851
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses92 / 134
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions1
Markets (closed)226 / 227
History coverage152d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes $10 $2 −$8 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $121 −$119 -98%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $120 +$105 +88%
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G Jun 26 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $802 +$692 +86%
Map Handicap: EJ (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5) Jun 25 $120 −$118 -99%
Map Handicap: OBSB (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) Jun 25 $154 +$151 +98%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $112 +$150 +134%
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) Jun 24 $158 +$219 +139%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 23 $103 −$101 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $133 −$4 -3%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $156 −$5 -3%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $164 +$141 +86%
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $103 −$101 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $182 +$128 +70%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $263 −$259 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: FearX vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC Jun 19 $60 +$51 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 17 $75 −$73 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $126 +$118 +94%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $74 +$116 +157%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $197 +$244 +124%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $167 −$165 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $134 +$204 +152%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $128 −$126 -99%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 08 $72 +$195 +272%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? Jun 07 $148 +$150 +101%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $20 −$2 -12%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $102 +$103 +101%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 06 $28 +$131 +474%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 06 $95 +$179 +188%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $147 −$145 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $111 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $25 −$24 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 05 $232 −$228 -98%
Map Handicap: SRG (-1.5) vs FlyQuest RED (+1.5) Jun 05 $129 +$204 +158%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 04 $83 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 03 $99 −$97 -98%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs Ghost Gaming GC (BO3) - VCT Game C Jun 03 $125 −$122 -98%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 03 $5 $0 -3%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $88 +$86 +97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $117 +$128 +110%
Map Handicap: NEW VISION (-1.5) vs Banger Gang (+1.5) Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Banger Gang (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 01 $69 −$68 -98%
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs largadosypelados (+1.5) Jun 01 $69 +$76 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $121 1h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $103 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $41 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $66 19h
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G BUY Pigeons 45¢ $69 26h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $314 44h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 45h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $243 45h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $205 45h
Map Handicap: EJ (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5) BUY Fortress 52¢ $120 2d
Map Handicap: OBSB (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) BUY Subtop De France 50¢ $92 2d
Map Handicap: OBSB (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) BUY Subtop De France 50¢ $62 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 42¢ $112 2d
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 38¢ $48 4d
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 27¢ $103 4d
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 38¢ $48 4d
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 47¢ $62 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $133 4d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 51¢ $156 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $305 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $164 4d
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $103 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $80 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $102 6d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 56¢ $164 6d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 50¢ $98 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: FearX vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC BUY CAG Osaka 53¢ $60 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H BUY Yes 18¢ $40 9d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $75 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.54 · official $1.54 (match) · 386 history records