Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe00…2e6b weather 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
Total PnL −$6 (-7%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$10
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +10.7% +0.1% 42% 42% +6.2%
≤30d 33 -19.5% -27.2% 30% 30% -16.9%
≤90d 33 -19.5% -27.2% 30% 30% -16.9%
all 33 -19.5% -27.2% 30% 30% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 30% -16.9%
10% -34.1% 30% -24.8%
15% -40.5% 30% -32.1%
20% -46.3% 30% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 39¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 8? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 8? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 7? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $0 $0 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$7 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$6 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$6 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$7 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 09 $3 +$6 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 8? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 8? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 7? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.03 · official $6.97 (match) · 49 history records