Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbdfa…dc55 crypto 769 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-3%) realized −$114 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%379W / 389L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day106.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$29
14 days−$102
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -6.5% -15.4% 43% 43% -13.8%
≤30d 768 -14.4% -22.6% 49% 42% -18.3%
≤90d 768 -14.4% -22.6% 49% 42% -18.3%
all 768 -14.4% -22.6% 49% 42% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 42% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 34% -26.1%
15% -36.7% 26% -33.3%
20% -42.9% 16% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses379 / 389
Open positions1
Markets (closed)768 / 769
History coverage19d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day106.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 768 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 60¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.98 · official $3.94 (match) · 2182 history records