Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbdfa…27d1 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-7%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$26
other 24% +$4
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -26.8% -33.7% 29% 21% -36.6%
≤30d 14 -26.8% -33.7% 29% 21% -36.6%
≤90d 14 -26.8% -33.7% 29% 21% -36.6%
all 14 -26.8% -33.7% 29% 21% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.7% 21% -36.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.1% 21% -42.7%
15% -45.9% 21% -48.2%
20% -51.2% 21% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$4 -39%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 26m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 2¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 56m
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.18 · official $8.08 (match) · 36 history records