Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:02:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdf2…d6d8 sports 23 markets active 2d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$65 (+17%) realized −$16 · open +$81
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$62
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% -46.9%
≤30d 4 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% -46.9%
≤90d 16 -24.4% -31.6% 44% 44% -17.5%
all 16 -24.4% -31.6% 44% 44% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 44% -17.5%
10% -38.2% 44% -25.4%
15% -44.2% 44% -32.6%
20% -49.6% 31% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 23
History coverage74d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 86¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+40%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 86¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+40%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 82¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+58%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 82¢ $32 $45 +$13 (+42%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 80¢ $25 $38 +$13 (+52%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 82¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 65¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Leicestershire Foxes vs Kent Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 +$5 +40%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Oldboys vs VP.Future 2 (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage May 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Fatic vs. Moeller: Match O/U 22.5 May 13 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade May 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Tunis: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Harold Mayot May 12 $24 +$18 +74%
Santos: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Franco Roncadelli May 07 $16 +$8 +51%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: May 03 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Abyssal (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O May 02 $21 +$12 +58%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs ex-SportsBetExpert (BO3) - ESL Challeng Apr 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5 Apr 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 65¢ $15 2d
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Leicestershire Foxes vs Kent BUY Kent 50¢ $5 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $13 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 5d
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Oldboys vs VP.Future 2 (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage BUY Oldboys 61¢ $11 35d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 36d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 36d
Fatic vs. Moeller: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 36d
Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade BUY Thiago Monteiro 60¢ $11 36d
Tunis: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Harold Mayot SELL Gilles Arnaud Bailly 100¢ $43 36d
Tunis: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Harold Mayot BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 57¢ $14 37d
Tunis: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Harold Mayot BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 56¢ $10 37d
Santos: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Franco Roncadelli SELL Franco Roncadelli 100¢ $24 41d
Santos: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Franco Roncadelli 66¢ $16 41d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: BUY Gentle Mates 55¢ $15 45d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Abyssal (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O SELL Ground Zero 100¢ $34 46d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Abyssal (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O BUY Ground Zero 64¢ $1 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.18 · official $273.18 (match) · 43 history records