Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdf0…d22c crypto 336 markets active 1d ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate46%153W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$23
14 days−$163
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$502
weather 1% +$14
other 0% +$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +26.6% +14.5% 53% 30% -12.7%
≤30d 156 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 16% -12.0%
≤90d 336 -12.2% -20.5% 46% 22% -12.6%
all 336 -12.2% -20.5% 46% 22% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 22% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 12% -20.9%
15% -35.1% 8% -28.6%
20% -41.4% 7% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses153 / 183
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage46d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$35 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$26 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +570%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $43 −$22 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $44 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$7 +653%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $40 −$21 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $73 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $76 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$3 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $136 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $141 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $164 −$18 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $285 −$25 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $75 −$24 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $122 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $122 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $101 −$22 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $169 −$61 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 09 $57 −$29 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $190 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $87 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $115 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $50 +$9 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 89¢ $62 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $12 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $42 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $15 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $35 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 47h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $39 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1465 history records