Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BD 0xbded…5ae9 politics 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 389d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,840 (+3%) realized +$7,610 · open −$1,770
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate69%111W / 50L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1,173per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$15,718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,458
7 days+$1,831
14 days+$1,869
30 days+$1,974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% +$5,729
politics 13% −$314
culture 8% −$67
other 6% +$953
world 2% +$214
sports 2% −$487
tech 1% +$252
crypto 0% +$6
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.0% +3.1% 100% 43% -1.5%
≤30d 10 +12.1% +1.4% 100% 30% -1.7%
≤90d 53 -12.1% -20.5% 62% 28% -4.7%
all 161 -5.2% -14.3% 69% 35% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 35% -5.4%
10% -22.5% 15% -14.5%
15% -30.0% 10% -22.8%
20% -36.8% 7% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$648) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$184 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

389d coverage
Net worth$15,718
Realized+$7,610
Unrealized−$1,770
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses111 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)161 / 173
History coverage389d
Avg bet$1,173
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 90¢ 78¢ $9,071 $7,899 −$1,171 (-13%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 65¢ 52¢ $5,344 $4,233 −$1,111 (-21%)
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? No 82¢ 96¢ $1,478 $1,735 +$257 (+17%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 63¢ 83¢ $793 $1,034 +$241 (+30%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $300 $319 +$19 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $207 $144 −$63 (-31%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 55¢ $88 $131 +$43 (+49%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 22¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $17,046 +$1,421 +8%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $302 +$37 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1,500 +$114 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $403 +$39 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $783 +$81 +10%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $404 +$84 +21%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $189 +$54 +29%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 10 $402 +$38 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $502 +$41 +8%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 31 $1,203 +$64 +5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 17 $479 +$72 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $28,460 +$2,067 +7%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 24, 202 Apr 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.5 on April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Apr 22 $100 −$29 -29%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 17 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 17, 202 Apr 17 $88 −$86 -99%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 202 Apr 17 $108 +$80 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $1,300 +$645 +50%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 13 $82 −$65 -79%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 13 $342 +$183 +54%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $300 +$155 +52%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Apr 08 $206 −$127 -62%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 3, 2026 Apr 06 $996 −$996 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 3, 2026 Apr 03 $170 −$156 -92%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 02 $200 −$65 -32%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026 Apr 02 $143 −$135 -94%
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31? Apr 01 $485 +$13 +3%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 31 $2,022 +$8 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 29 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 29 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 29 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 29 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 29 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 29 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Iran" at the rally on Saturday? Mar 29 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on March 27, 202 Mar 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 202 Mar 28 $288 +$353 +122%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 27 $2,262 −$305 -14%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Mar 27 $74 −$24 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $505 26m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $505 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,116 7h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 73¢ $2,114 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,286 8h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $2,938 8h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $1 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $3,010 4d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $111 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 94¢ $490 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 91¢ $241 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $243 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $36 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 91¢ $403 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8d
ECB rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $440 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 94¢ $7 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 90¢ $402 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $409 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 90¢ $141 10d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $136 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 92¢ $903 16d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 88¢ $302 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 92¢ $100 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $543 17d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 17d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $552 30d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $1,506 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,718.22 · official $15,718.25 (match) · 562 history records