Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BD 0xbde9…f359 politics 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$419 (+14%) realized +$418 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +191% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +164% what you keep after slip
Net edge+164%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%10W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$911now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% +$91
other 3% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+163.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +171.1% +145.3% 100% 100% +145.3%
≤90d 3 +537.6% +476.9% 100% 100% +192.1%
all 10 +191.3% +163.5% 100% 100% +45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +163.5% 100% +45.5%
10% +138.3% 90% +31.6%
15% +115.3% 60% +18.9%
20% +94.2% 50% +7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +223% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +191% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$911
Realized+$418
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses10 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage259d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 47¢ 46¢ $472 $465 −$7 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 87¢ $337 $347 +$10 (+3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $101 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $19 +$32 +171%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $1 +$14 +1350%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 27 $13 +$3 +24%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 22 $42 +$10 +23%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof Jan 06 $24 +$16 +68%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 03 $56 +$54 +97%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 21 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 03 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Oct 27 $43 +$11 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 40m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 44¢ $88 27h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 46¢ $94 34h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $87 8d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 47¢ $94 8d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 49¢ $98 9d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 50¢ $102 11d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 29¢ $57 14d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 14d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 21d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $44 21d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 21d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 21d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 21d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 82¢ $82 21d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 29¢ $87 21d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 21d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 82¢ $82 21d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $84 21d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 33d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $120 33d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $85 33d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 6¢ $30 34d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $61 34d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 54¢ $848 34d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $11 35d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $16 35d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $911.41 · official $911.41 (match) · 162 history records