Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbde9…f6e1 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,087 (+11%) realized +$1,087 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$543per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,083
other 0% +$2
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.6% +0.9% 100% 50% -2.0%
≤30d 2 +11.6% +0.9% 100% 50% -2.0%
≤90d 5 +2.5% -7.3% 80% 40% -36.2%
all 16 +7.7% -2.6% 88% 25% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 25% +0.1%
10% -11.9% 19% -9.5%
15% -20.4% 19% -18.2%
20% -28.2% 19% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$406 vs −$2,298 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$1,087
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage136d
Avg bet$543
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio Gabriele Bosio 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 88¢ 87¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 75¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 Apr 20 $183 −$180 -98%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 20 $102 +$81 +79%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $2 $0 +10%
Will MrBeast's latest video get less than 45 million views on week 1? Mar 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 10 $7 $0 +2%
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5) Mar 10 $1,472 +$1,414 +96%
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 224.5 Mar 10 $4,020 +$4,184 +104%
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) Mar 09 $4,415 −$4,415 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Aperture - Harry Styles be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Feb 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 25 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.55 · official $54.55 (match) · 35 history records