Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbde9…b99d sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$413 (-6%) realized −$418 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$435
14 days−$435
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$188
other 15% −$238
tech 7% +$3
crypto 7% $0
culture 7% +$1
politics 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -73.2% -75.8% 0% 0% -65.0%
≤30d 4 -36.4% -42.5% 50% 0% -32.1%
≤90d 12 -12.0% -20.4% 83% 0% -16.8%
all 14 -10.3% -18.9% 86% 0% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -15.7%
10% -26.6% 0% -23.7%
15% -33.7% 0% -31.1%
20% -40.2% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$218 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage104d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 59¢ 60¢ $588 $593 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $200 −$197 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $514 −$239 -46%
Will "Cleaner" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $508 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $510 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? May 14 $510 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun May 10 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec May 10 $300 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $509 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $508 +$1 +0%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 07 $508 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $507 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $2.00 end of March? Apr 01 $506 +$1 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $506 +$1 +0%
Bulls vs. Clippers Mar 14 $505 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $596 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $200 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 31¢ $275 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 56¢ $514 6d
Will "Cleaner" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $508 18d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $510 32d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $510 47d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec BUY No 100¢ $300 51d
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun BUY No 100¢ $200 51d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $509 64d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 100¢ $508 69d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $508 81d
Raptors vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $507 86d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $2.00 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $506 94d
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY JD Gaming 100¢ $506 98d
Bulls vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 100¢ $505 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.27 · official $593.27 (match) · 29 history records