Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbde8…3419
crypto · 1159 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$219 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$220 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$220
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses943 / 215
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1158 / 1159
History coverage45d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1158 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$140
14 days−$170
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 50¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $19 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -25.3% -32.4% 38% 34% -28.0%
≤30d 1014 -2.6% -11.9% 81% 19% -9.4%
≤90d 1158 +0.2% -9.3% 81% 21% -8.3%
all 1158 +0.2% -9.3% 81% 21% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 21% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 15% -17.1%
15% -25.9% 11% -25.1%
20% -33.2% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $2.52 (match) · 2518 history records