Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbde8…8fd4 world 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$344 (-78%) realized −$170 · open −$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -97% what you keep after slip
Net edge-97%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$174
other 42% −$180
sports 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-97.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -96.9% -97.2% 0% 0% -96.6%
≤30d 3 -96.9% -97.2% 0% 0% -96.6%
≤90d 3 -96.9% -97.2% 0% 0% -96.6%
all 3 -96.9% -97.2% 0% 0% -96.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -97.2% 0% -96.6%
10% -97.4% 0% -97.0%
15% -97.7% 0% -97.2%
20% -97.9% 0% -97.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -97% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$63 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$170
Unrealized−$174
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage18d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $175 $32 −$143 (-82%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $36 $4 −$31 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $29 −$27 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $158 −$153 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $45 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 27h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 15d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $44 17d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $70 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.12 · official $36.12 (match) · 28 history records