Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:03:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbde7…fbb5 other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$230 (-5%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%71W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$227
14 days−$531
30 days−$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$584
other 35% +$324
world 2% −$39
politics 1% −$48
crypto 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -16.1% -24.1% 27% 26% -31.6%
≤30d 229 -11.7% -20.1% 31% 30% -15.3%
≤90d 229 -11.7% -20.1% 31% 30% -15.3%
all 230 -12.1% -20.5% 31% 30% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 30% -16.2%
10% -28.1% 27% -24.2%
15% -35.0% 22% -31.5%
20% -41.4% 17% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses71 / 159
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)230 / 236
History coverage187d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 230 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $3 $0 -13%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $27 −$7 -24%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $39 −$14 -35%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $3 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -74%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -22%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $15 −$14 -90%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -71%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $2 +$19 +929%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 +$8 +404%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $45 +$16 +36%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -78%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -77%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -41%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $145 −$86 -59%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $30 −$24 -80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$3 +71%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 −$5 -47%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -62%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -57%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $3 $0 -5%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -79%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -43%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $8 +$2 +26%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $2 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 +$5 +360%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 +$9 +654%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $8 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $21 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $27 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $39 4h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 6¢ $1 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 7¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? SELL Yes 85¢ $21 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 462 history records