Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbde7…89eb sports 87 markets active 4h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate49%42W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day76.2pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$152
14 days−$131
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$42
other 39% −$90
crypto 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -29.2% -35.9% 41% 13% -11.9%
≤30d 86 -22.2% -29.6% 49% 16% -10.9%
≤90d 86 -22.2% -29.6% 49% 16% -10.9%
all 86 -22.2% -29.6% 49% 16% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.6% 16% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 8% -19.4%
15% -42.5% 7% -27.2%
20% -48.1% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses42 / 44
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage24d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day76.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $29 +$43 +147%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $75 −$19 -26%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 +$4 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $121 −$2 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $147 −$2 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $297 +$5 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $121 −$2 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 +$21 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $149 −$6 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $60 −$20 -33%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $394 −$10 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $58 +$8 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $686 −$25 -4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $130 +$4 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 −$4 -26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $468 +$16 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $19 −$11 -59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $161 +$68 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $190 +$18 +9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $160 −$15 -9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $90 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $177 −$9 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $23 −$3 -11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -58%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 −$9 -45%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $92 +$2 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $50 −$20 -40%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $35 −$4 -12%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $21 +$8 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $40 −$8 -20%
France vs. Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
France vs. Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $415 +$20 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $42 +$7 +17%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $75 −$8 -11%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 96¢ $42 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 96¢ $15 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 21¢ $0 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 18¢ $10 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 27¢ $5 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 26¢ $4 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 33¢ $13 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $0 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $9 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $20 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 31¢ $0 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 31¢ $20 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $20 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 30¢ $14 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 30¢ $6 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 30¢ $1 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $20 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 94¢ $69 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $5 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.05 · official $2.05 (match) · 1877 history records