Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbde6…764b sports 555 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,834 (+1%) realized +$1,837 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%337W / 217L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1,515est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$421
7 days−$421
14 days−$1,317
30 days−$567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,400
other 1% −$955
crypto 0% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.5% -29.0% 44% 44% -38.9%
≤30d 52 -3.0% -12.3% 54% 54% -9.0%
≤90d 247 -5.7% -14.7% 61% 56% -11.4%
all 554 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 56% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 56% -8.2%
10% -21.0% 44% -17.0%
15% -28.7% 31% -25.0%
20% -35.7% 19% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$236 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$1,837
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses337 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,515
Open positions1
Markets (closed)554 / 555
History coverage185d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Under 52¢ 48¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $101 +$68 +67%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $101 +$34 +34%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 182.5 Jun 28 $100 +$97 +97%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $160 +$57 +36%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $301 −$196 -65%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 177.5 Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 27 $253 −$253 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $152 −$109 -72%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $78 −$70 -91%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $75 −$71 -94%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $475 −$398 -84%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$25 +24%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$52 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $263 +$136 +52%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $203 +$59 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $183 +$21 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $550 −$94 -17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $273 −$123 -45%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$54 -54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $407 +$119 +29%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $190 +$216 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 +$118 +162%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $245 −$172 -70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$164 -82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $34 +$15 +44%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $132 +$18 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $732 −$598 -82%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $206 +$47 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $374 −$168 -45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$53 -52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $91 −$88 -97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $51 −$23 -45%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 12 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$51 +51%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 11 $51 +$44 +86%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 Jun 10 $51 +$15 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,031 +$2,082 +102%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,111 −$1,100 -99%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $939 +$447 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $810 −$643 -79%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $506 −$80 -16%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5 Jun 03 $101 +$79 +78%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5 Jun 03 $51 −$41 -82%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $51 +$55 +109%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 02 $101 +$65 +64%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $203 +$66 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $169 13h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 13h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 14h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 14h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 182.5 SELL Over 100¢ $198 14h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 15h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $160 15h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 28¢ $36 15h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 32¢ $69 15h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $301 16h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 182.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 17h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $40 35h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $3 35h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 36h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 36h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over $7 38h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $78 39h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 10d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $75 10d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 15¢ $77 10d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $475 10d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $125 10d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $154 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $398 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $60 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.63 · official $46.63 (match) · 1441 history records