Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbde5…3d06 crypto 279 markets active 6d ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$774 (-5%) realized −$764 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%112W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$106
14 days−$106
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$2,969
other 8% +$2,010
politics 4% −$274
world 2% −$31
sports 0% −$49
finance 0% −$30
tech 0% −$3
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -14.4% -22.6% 30% 30% -66.0%
≤30d 18 -45.6% -50.8% 22% 22% -61.6%
≤90d 149 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 38% -20.5%
all 276 -15.9% -23.9% 41% 37% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 37% -17.1%
10% -31.2% 32% -25.0%
15% -37.9% 29% -32.2%
20% -43.9% 25% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$46 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$764
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses112 / 164
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)276 / 279
History coverage176d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$21 +391%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $101 +$24 +23%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 22 $4 −$4 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 17 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 17 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 16 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 16 $21 +$41 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 16 $14 +$35 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 16 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 16 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 16 $37 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 16 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 16 $31 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 16 $11 +$18 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 16 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 16 $41 +$29 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 16 $32 −$10 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $26 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $40 6d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 5¢ $5 10d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 26d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 7¢ $10 26d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY Yes 1¢ $3 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.93 · official $14.93 (match) · 846 history records