Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BD 0xbde5…3195 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+8%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$77
other 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.5% -16.3% 74% 61% +6.6%
≤30d 23 -7.5% -16.3% 74% 61% +6.6%
≤90d 23 -7.5% -16.3% 74% 61% +6.6%
all 23 -7.5% -16.3% 74% 61% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 61% +6.6%
10% -24.3% 30% -3.6%
15% -31.6% 26% -13.0%
20% -38.3% 4% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.24 per $1 lost it wins $6.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $97 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $82 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$22 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $46 +$10 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $24 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$10 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $56 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $46 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $24 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $18 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $14 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 68¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records