Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbde3…4a49 sports 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$111,394 (-8%) realized −$111,969 · open +$575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%90W / 87L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,576per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$17,945est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$13,222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$5,673
other 3% +$40,658
politics 2% −$19,689
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +42.8% +29.2% 71% 65% +24.6%
≤30d 47 +21.5% +10.0% 53% 51% +16.1%
≤90d 177 +5.4% -4.6% 51% 49% -8.5%
all 177 +5.4% -4.6% 51% 49% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 49% -8.5%
10% -13.7% 48% -17.3%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 47% -25.3%
20% -29.7% 44% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$10,532) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,856 vs −$6,923 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$13,222
Realized−$111,969
Unrealized+$575
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses90 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$17,945
Open positions3
Markets (closed)177 / 179
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$7,576
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 34¢ 36¢ $6,219 $6,529 +$310 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $5,900 $6,150 +$250 (+4%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $528 $543 +$15 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $5,901 +$6,246 +106%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $4,588 +$6,441 +140%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,323 +$4,837 +146%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $8,428 −$8,338 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $3,526 +$3,400 +96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11,756 +$7,577 +64%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $4,615 +$5,385 +117%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $4,119 +$1,889 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $1,393 +$1,587 +114%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $2,783 +$2,772 +100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $519 −$288 -56%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $112 −$112 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,047 +$1,944 +186%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $7,993 −$7,993 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15,928 +$16,329 +102%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $18,944 +$1,883 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5,709 −$5,709 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8,978 +$14,355 +160%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2,095 −$2,095 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $3,314 −$3,314 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 14 $5,102 −$5,102 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10,067 +$9,933 +99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,600 +$6,400 +178%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,543 +$7,315 +474%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 10 $1,282 −$1,282 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4,900 −$4,900 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $6,879 −$6,879 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $14,512 −$14,512 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $23,350 +$10,186 +44%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10,234 +$5,558 +54%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $20,674 +$24,535 +119%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 08 $116 −$116 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 08 $1,967 −$1,967 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $3,575 −$3,575 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Jun 08 $5,002 −$5,002 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2,420 −$2,420 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $3,611 −$3,611 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2,417 −$2,417 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $12,750 −$12,750 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $13,371 +$21,531 +161%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $18,771 +$18,960 +101%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $3,509 +$6,152 +175%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6,349 +$11,286 +178%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $2,764 +$2,880 +104%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $13,021 −$12,651 -97%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $8,012 −$7,038 -88%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,823 +$2,251 +124%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 22 $968 +$853 +88%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 22 $2,291 −$2,291 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 22 $10,784 −$8,767 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $2,825 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $5,900 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $1,650 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $1,835 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $2,330 9h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $63 11h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $3,508 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $11 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $1 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $400 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $42 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $252 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $8 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $14 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $1 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $14 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $61 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $3,785 17h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $3,258 25h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $65 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $67 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $1,546 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $14 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $4 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $115 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $82 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $1,732 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $5,100 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $5,195 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $240 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,221.76 · official $13,222.03 (match) · 3500 history records