Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:54:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbde0…4333
crypto · 167 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$332 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$322 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$435
Realized−$322
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses101 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)156 / 167
History coverage14d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 11 History 156 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$34
14 days−$322
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $320 $303 −$17 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+35%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$13 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $81 −$13 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $41 −$10 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 05 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 04 $40 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 04 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $61 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 04 $61 −$13 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $93 −$50 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 04 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $61 −$40 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $61 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$299
other 8% −$10
sports 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $227 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 24h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.9% -36.5% 43% 29% -36.8%
≤30d 156 -7.8% -16.6% 65% 42% -15.0%
≤90d 156 -7.8% -16.6% 65% 42% -15.0%
all 156 -7.8% -16.6% 65% 42% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 42% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 28% -23.1%
15% -31.9% 15% -30.5%
20% -38.6% 8% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.28 · official $435.28 (match) · 420 history records