Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbddf…c684 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (650 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,533,304 (+3972%) realized +$1,532,474 · open +$830
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 468L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,721per market
Trades / day649.5pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$418,922now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$830
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (650 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 468 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -99.9%
≤30d 468 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -99.9%
≤90d 468 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -99.9%
all 468 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -99.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover649.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -99.9%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$64,787) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -100% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
445.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$54,084 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$418,922
Realized+$1,532,474
Unrealized+$830
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 468
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions32
Markets (closed)468 / 5
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$7,721
Trades / day649.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $94,861 $135,812 +$40,951 (+43%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $62,202 $64,097 +$1,896 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 54¢ $40,597 $42,587 +$1,990 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28,720 $40,867 +$12,147 (+42%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 48¢ 51¢ $34,691 $36,859 +$2,168 (+6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40,568 $28,256 −$12,312 (-30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $21,544 $25,914 +$4,371 (+20%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28,651 $14,325 −$14,325 (-50%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9,690 $5,836 −$3,854 (-40%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,486 $4,992 +$1,506 (+43%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14,658 $3,665 −$10,994 (-75%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,576 $3,361 −$2,216 (-40%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9,496 $2,849 −$6,647 (-70%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,820 $2,841 −$10,978 (-79%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,671 $2,335 −$2,335 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,521 $1,681 +$160 (+11%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 49¢ $984 $1,004 +$20 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 42¢ 52¢ $737 $907 +$169 (+23%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $137 $342 +$205 (+150%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,236 $256 −$980 (-79%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 36¢ 24¢ $194 $130 −$65 (-33%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $42 $4 −$38 (-90%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $1 −$8 (-86%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+845%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 468 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 25 $8,258 −$8,258 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $9,010 −$9,010 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-5.5) Jun 25 $29,039 −$29,039 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 25 $80,855 −$80,662 -100%
Knicks vs. Mavericks Jun 25 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the fight end in the Round 2? Jun 25 $591 −$591 -100%
Will Australia win? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic Jun 25 $14,911 −$14,911 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 25 $199,750 −$199,750 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-12.5) Jun 25 $13,368 −$13,368 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $7,832 −$7,832 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 25 $353,860 −$353,860 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5) Jun 25 $698,107 −$698,107 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 25 $114,057 −$114,057 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Jun 25 $5,530 −$5,530 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 25 $57,601 −$57,601 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $180,000 −$180,000 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Hawks Jun 25 $1,729 −$1,729 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Jun 25 $4,651 −$4,651 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 25 $194,706 −$194,706 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Jun 25 $128 −$128 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 25 $48,028 −$48,028 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 25 $111,887 −$111,887 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-6.5) Jun 25 $721 −$721 -100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Jun 25 $7,247 −$7,247 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $159,361 −$159,361 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 25 $505 −$505 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 25 $126 −$126 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-3.5) Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-1.5) Jun 25 $3,023 −$3,023 -100%
Spread: Nets (-3.5) Jun 25 $7,039 −$7,039 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 25 $16,521 −$16,521 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 25 $84,000 −$84,000 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Jun 25 $61,604 −$61,604 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 25 $14,189 −$13,921 -98%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 25 $3,276 −$3,276 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 25 $215,536 −$215,536 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Jun 25 $50,800 −$50,800 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-14? Jun 25 $19,124 −$19,124 -100%
Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 25 $25,961 −$25,961 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-11.5) Jun 25 $34,148 −$34,148 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-1.5) Jun 25 $5,352 −$5,352 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 25 $40,579 −$40,579 -100%
Will West Ham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jun 25 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Jun 25 $146,409 −$146,409 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $5,105 −$5,105 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 25 $59,057 −$59,057 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 0m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 7m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 18m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 20m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 20m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 23m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 27m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 28m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 29m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 29m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 30m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 31m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 32m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 32m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 32m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 33m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 34m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 34m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 34m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 35m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 36m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 36m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 37m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 37m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 41m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 46m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 46m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 47m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 47m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418,922.25 · official $427,986.56 · 3500 history records