Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 28 History 476 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$506
7 days+$800
14 days+$2,746
30 days+$2,981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $3,058 $3,098 +$40 (+1%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2,360 $2,340 −$20 (-1%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 78¢ 73¢ $1,560 $1,460 −$100 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,200 $1,150 −$50 (-4%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $1,050 $1,069 +$19 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,050 $1,045 −$5 (-0%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $783 $796 +$14 (+2%)
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 55¢ $1,115 $706 −$408 (-37%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 53¢ 34¢ $529 $340 −$189 (-36%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $380 $301 −$79 (-21%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-38 House seat? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $285 $284 −$2 (-1%)
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+1%)
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $91 $97 +$6 (+6%)
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 97¢ 97¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5,452 +$506 +9%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Jun 07 $472 −$4 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 05 $539 +$26 +5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $725 +$59 +8%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,340 −$25 -2%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $950 +$40 +4%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 05 $8,975 +$198 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $969 +$30 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9,841 +$1,758 +18%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $216 +$2 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,633 +$156 +6%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $71 +$34 +47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $772 +$19 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $1,959 +$76 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $2,902 +$92 +3%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $91 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $86 +$14 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 09 $5,355 −$40 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $3,172 +$40 +1%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 01 $670 +$315 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 29? May 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr May 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 01 $111 $0 +0%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 01 $143 $0 +0%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $155 +$20 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on April May 01 $188 $0 +0%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, May 01 $1,094 +$11 +1%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 01 $1,190 +$9 +1%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 May 01 $1,347 +$12 +1%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 01 $2,573 +$27 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 01 $2,770 +$30 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $2,960 +$40 +1%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 01 $5,242 +$58 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $9,683 +$117 +1%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $17,107 +$410 +2%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, May 01 $4,174 +$63 +2%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 28 $18,892 −$5,263 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 27? Apr 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on April Apr 28 $185 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 26 $392 −$68 -17%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Apr 26 $3,234 −$131 -4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Apr 26 $1,046 −$8 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Apr 26 $3,220 +$2 +0%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Apr 26 $797 −$24 -3%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Apr 26 $2,410 +$17 +1%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Apr 26 $4,300 −$21 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $5,964 +$97 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Apr 26 $6,757 +$54 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$13,069
world 26% −$1,109
weather 17% −$35,673
politics 11% +$6,416
crypto 9% +$947
economics 2% −$135
culture 2% −$2,246
sports 0% +$339
tech 0% −$165
finance 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 79¢ $79 56m
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 78¢ $574 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $386 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $515 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $128 4h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 78¢ $468 4h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 78¢ $76 5h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 78¢ $23 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,998 6h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 78¢ $6 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $200 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $846 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $185 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,088 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,942 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 89¢ $46 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 89¢ $292 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 89¢ $697 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 89¢ $746 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $870 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.7% -6.2% 71% 0% -5.6%
≤30d 18 +7.1% -3.1% 89% 17% -2.4%
≤90d 66 +3.1% -6.8% 86% 9% -9.5%
all 476 -5.1% -14.2% 83% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 8% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 4% -18.9%
15% -29.9% 2% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,820.73 · official $13,820.69 (match) · 3302 history records