Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbddd…3d9a crypto 256 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31,289 (+26%) realized +$31,003 · open +$286
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%157W / 98L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$1,039est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$11,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,165
7 days+$2,139
14 days+$16,694
30 days+$19,450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$20,071
crypto 40% −$626
other 11% +$5,859
world 1% +$123
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +15.4% +4.4% 73% 73% +7.1%
≤30d 43 +11.9% +1.2% 67% 65% +33.8%
≤90d 255 -7.3% -16.1% 62% 51% +10.0%
all 255 -7.3% -16.1% 62% 51% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 51% +10.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 41% -0.6%
15% -31.5% 33% -10.2%
20% -38.2% 24% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$534) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$290 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$11,082
Realized+$31,003
Unrealized+$286
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses157 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,039
Open positions4
Markets (closed)255 / 256
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$476
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5,525 $5,703 +$178 (+3%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 50¢ 50¢ $4,960 $5,050 +$90 (+2%)
Will Ciryl Gane become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 40¢ 41¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 47¢ 52¢ $111 $124 +$13 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $960 −$956 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $515 +$428 +83%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $138 +$53 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $203 +$197 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $276 +$270 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $136 +$64 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $183 +$154 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $206 +$194 +94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $696 +$304 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,274 +$378 +30%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $681 −$681 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $124 +$70 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $360 +$362 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $547 +$197 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $95 +$49 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $407 +$92 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $473 +$82 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $2,007 +$1,190 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,223 +$306 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $435 −$435 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $207 +$129 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $261 +$233 +89%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,333 +$257 +19%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2,015 +$4,663 +231%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10,133 +$9,867 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $4,060 +$3,940 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1,910 −$1,910 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $66 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 31 $491 −$491 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $530 −$58 -11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4,477 +$1,028 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 30 $445 +$257 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $1,740 +$676 +39%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $491 −$479 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 25 $534 −$534 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 25 $649 −$649 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 25 $653 +$76 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 25 $864 +$630 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 25 $299 −$299 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 25 $545 −$545 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 25 $327 +$258 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $1,990 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 81¢ $394 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 79¢ $566 3h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $3,045 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $943 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $515 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $132 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $88 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $89 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $70 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $194 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,081.81 · official $11,131.81 (match) · 3500 history records